Why $100 per XRP Is Unlikely Even After 2.5M Burned in Over 800 Days

Key Insights:

• Over 2.5 million XRP has been permanently burned over 800 days, reducing supply slowly.

• XRP’s burn mechanism is protocol-level and linked to transaction fees, but the impact on scarcity is debated.

• Some analysts on social media argue $100 per XRP is inevitable, though many experts call this unrealistic due to supply math.

More than 2.5 million XRP has been burnt permanently in the last 800 days and this has slowly reduced supply. The process of XRP burn is protocol-based and is associated with transaction costs, although the effects on scarcity are controversial.

Other social media analysts claim that an XRP price of $100 is imminent, though many experts call this unrealistic due to supply math.

In recent studies, the burn rate has reduced significantly. At the beginning of 2025, burns were between about 2,500 and 7,500 XRP per day.

With the activity decreasing later, the burns frequently dropped to less than 1,000 XRP per day and occasionally even 400-750 XRP per day, small withdrawals in comparison to supply.

You multiply that by approximately 800 days and that is approximately 2.5 million XRP that is burned, which again is a big number when you remember that the current supply of XRP circulates at approximately 60.7 billion tokens.

Even decades of burns can hardly help at such a rate. The question is: do you have to take tens of billions of tokens away before you see prices in the triple digits? Most analysts say no.

Current XRP Price and Supply Reality

Let’s ground this in real numbers:

• Price: XRP currently trades around $2.10–$2.12.
   
• Circulating Supply: Roughly 60.69 billion XRP out of a max of 100 billion.
   
• Market Cap: About $127–$130 billion USD region.

To hit $100 per token, XRP would need a market cap of $6 trillion+ based just on current circulating supply ($100 × 60B). That’s more than the entire crypto market today, more than many country’s GDPs, and about 40 times the current market cap. That alone should make you question how “inevitable” $100 really is.

So Why Do Some Still York for $100?

The $100 narrative on X and other social forums persists, and some crypto personalities still champion it.

One recent X post from a crypto analyst 𝟸𝟺𝙷𝚁𝚂𝙲𝚁𝚈𝙿𝚃𝙾 cited burn data and long-term deflationary predictions as reasons for big future gains. Hype cycles are typically informed by the social perception of people, yet they do not alter the mathematics.

The bullish argument looks like this:

• Burns reduce supply
   
• Network adoption increases demand
   
• Scarcity + usage = higher price

Sure, in theory that’s a neat story. But in practice XRP’s burn is linked directly to usage, and if usage stagnates, so does the burn. With current burn declining to hundreds per day in periods of low activity, the “scarcity engine” barely hums.

Realistic Scarcity vs. Speculative Price Targets

Scarcity plays a role in XRP's long-term structure because every transaction permanently burns a small amount of the token, gradually reducing total supply over time.

Nevertheless, in comparison with the amount of on-chain activity going through at present, this mechanism eliminates a microscopic fraction of the supply in circulation, leaving its short to medium-term effects on scarcity insignificant.

Valuation wise, a price of XRP will mean a lot of extra demand, wide global penetration or significant macroeconomic changes that goes way beyond the current supply and demand trend in the industry.

Such a target is considered highly unlikely by most macro analysts and valuation models without structural adjustments of world payment mechanisms or the introduction of the unprecedented capital flows into the digital asset market.

In other words: burns alone won’t push XRP to $100. It would require either a new utility revolution or demand that dwarfs everything seen in crypto history. And frankly, with current data showing low burn levels and stable supply, we’re not there yet.

Final Thought

Is $100 per XRP impossible? Strictly speaking, nothing can be absolutely impossible. According to the current supply, burn dynamics, and market cap calculations, obtained using CoinMarketCap and burn rate data obtained using TradingView/other analytics, it is not exactly inevitable.

The majority of realistic models indicate a moderate growth in the future based on adoption and real use, rather than an exponential growth due to token burns only.

Ultimately the question isn’t just what could happen, but what’s supported by data, math, and real-world activity? That’s where the $100 thesis stumbles.