Bitcoin Price Analysis: Long-Term Holders Bullish, Short-Term Holders Selling

Key Insights :

• Long term holders profit realization is cooling.

• Bitcoin's short term holders are selling aggressively causing price stagnation.

Bitcoin's LTH realized price has climbed to $45.34K -reflecting the aging of coins bought around $90K–$100K into long-term status. With the 155-day cut-off, buyers from Dec '24 are now LTHs, gradually lifting the cohort’s cost basis.

Over the past week, the crypto market has seen Bitcoin hold strongly above $100k. Since reaching these levels 7 days ago, BTC prices have continued to hover around $100k and $105k.

The surge in prices means long-term holders realized gains have also climbed, reaching $45.34 K. Investors who acquired BTC around $90k-100k have seen ther holdings age into long-term status. The 144-day cut-off buyers from Dec 24 are now gradually increasing the cohort's cost basis.

While those who acquired Bitcoin around $100k are now among the long-term holders, they continue to hold onto their holdings. Although BTC had pulled back for months, leaving them on unrealized losses, the recent price recovery has not incentivized them to sell. This reflects strong bullish sentiments from long-term holders as they anticipate BTC prices to rise even further.

When we look at Bitcoin long-term holders' SOPR, we assert that LTHs are not selling. This metric has been trending downward even as the price rallied to $105k, approaching the $109K range. Currently, LTH SOPR holds around 1.6, a dip from 2.5.

This decline suggests that long-term holders have not yet engaged in notable profit-taking. Instead, they appear to be accumulating, signaling confidence in higher price targets and anticipating new all-time highs.

While the cohort is still selling, their selling activity is strategic and unlikely to have an extreme negative impact on BTC price movement.

As per Glassnode data, LTH spending has already reached a peak of 0.43 after a drop in LTH supply in May. The market behavior from long-term holders suggests that the cohort is highly bullish and anticipates BTC to continue with the rally.

Can BTC Rally to a new ATH?

While long-term holders are not selling, short-term holders are actively taking profit. After BTC prices spiked to $106k, most of the holders were left sitting on unrealized profit. Thus, short-term holders have taken the opportunity to realize profit.

Therefore, the current consolidation phase seems to be primarily driven by short-term holders and retail traders. STH continues to lock in profit.

Based on this behavior, Bitcoin is likely to resume its bullish trend following this pause, potentially leading to a fresh impulsive rally and new all-time highs in the mid-term. If short-term and retailers stop with the selling activity and start holding their positions, another price hike will be highly likely.

A shift in sentiment among the cohort will strengthen Bitcoin to attempt another leg up and breakout of the consolidation. A breakout from the current levels will see an upswing past $108k and attempt to make another ATH around $110k.

Subsequently, a continuation of profit-taking behavior from short-term holders and retail investors will result in a prolonged consolidation. A prolonged consolidation could lead to LTH becoming impatient and prices dropping below $100k again, towards $106k.