Bitcoin Could Surpass $100,000 With ETF Inflows, says CryptoQuant CEO

Ki Young Ju, the co-founder and CEO of market intelligence firm CryptoQuant, has expressed optimism about Bitcoin's potential to reach a new all-time high in the coming months, driven by inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

He stated that Bitcoin prices could reach as high as $112,000 this year if the current trend of inflows related to spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) persists.

CEO Ki Young Ju highlighted that even in a "worse case" scenario, Bitcoin could still see a significant rise to at least $55,000, representing a nearly 15% increase from current levels.

Bitcoin Price Surge Driven by ETF Inflows and Realized Cap Growth

Ki's prediction is based on two key metrics: BTC ETF inflows and Bitcoin's realized cap, an on-chain metric that aims to provide a more accurate estimate of Bitcoin's market capitalization by excluding long-lost and unclaimed coins from the calculation.

The projections are based on the effect of inflows on Bitcoin's market capitalization and a metric ratio historically indicating whether prices were "overvalued" or "undervalued."

Ki stated that the Bitcoin market has witnessed substantial monthly spot ETF inflows of $9.5 billion, potentially boosting the realized capitalization by $114 billion annually. 

Using Bitcoin's realized cap as a guide, Ki Young Ju identifies potential ceiling and floor prices for Bitcoin in the current year.

He suggests that Bitcoin could reach $112,000 driven by ETF inflows, with a worst-case scenario of $55,000.

Currently, Bitcoin's realized cap stands at $451 billion. However, Ki Young Ju believes that ETF inflows could propel Bitcoin's realized cap to surpass half a trillion dollars.

Even with outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), a rise of $76 billion could elevate the realized cap from $451 billion to a range between $527 billion to $565 billion.

Bitcoin price rose to an intra-day high of $50,000 on Feb. 12 for the first time since December 2021, following a streak of positive post-exchange-traded funds last week. 

Bitcoin price rapidly rallied 3.25% from an intra-day low of $47,745 on Feb. 12 to hit a two-year high at $50,000. The rally to a new 2-year high was prefaced by a 16% gain over the last 7 days.

Surge Fueled by Rapid Growth of Spot ETFs and Institutional Interest

Ki referred to a ratio tracking Bitcoin's market capitalization to realized capitalization, which historically indicated a price top.

At prices between $104,000 to $112,000, this ratio would reach 3.9, a level historically associated with a price peak.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have quickly amassed over 192,000 bitcoins in holdings since their launch nearly a month ago.

These funds have attracted billions of dollars from investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin without direct ownership or storage.

The rapid growth of Bitcoin ETFs and the associated influx of investment suggest increasing institutional interest and confidence in Bitcoin's potential as a store of value and investment asset.

Bitcoin’s strong performance comes as the inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs increased over the past week. Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $1.1 billion in netflows as outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to slow down.

According to a Feb. 12 CoinShares report, the “newly issued spot-based Bitcoin ETFs in the US, saw a net US$1.1bn inflows last week, bringing inflows since the January 11th launch to US$2.8bn.”

However, as with any investment, investors should carefully consider the risks and market dynamics before making investment decisions.