Welcome back to my latest analysis, inspired by my Sunday X thread (https://x.com/ReiSoleil/status/1936824209444921543).
As a trader with nearly three decades in the markets, I have learned to read between the lines of headlines and charts.
Today, we’re unpacking the current crypto landscape—particularly Bitcoin (BTC)—in light of geopolitical tensions, monetary policy, and an intriguing political narrative. Let’s dive in.
The term "black swan" refers to an unpredictable, high-impact event that upends markets. Right now, the drums of war beating in Iran, as noted in recent news (e.g., Al Jazeera, June 16, 2025), might seem like a candidate.
However, after decades of observing market behavior, I’d argue this isn’t a black swan. Tensions between Iran and Israel have simmered for years, and financial markets—oil, stocks, and crypto—have likely priced this conflict into their valuations.
The initial market jitters have stabilized, and Brent crude’s 7% spike to $74.60 per barrel (Al Jazeera) reflects adjustment, not panic. A true black swan, by definition, is unforeseeable—think 2008’s financial crisis or COVID-19’s onset. For now, the war’s impact feels baked in, but as a seasoned trader, I know the unknown always lurks.
Let’s pivot to a bolder hypothesis: what if Donald Trump’s actions are part of a deliberate strategy to dismantle the American Empire, ignite a second civil war, and target the elites he blames for his 2020 election loss?
This perspective shifts the narrative. Trump’s recent Truth Social warnings to Iran (Al Jazeera, June 16, 2025) and his administration’s crypto-friendly policies (e.g., the January 23, 2025, executive order, Pillsbury Law) suggest a pivot.
His family’s newfound liquidity in crypto—unprecedented before their recent dabbling—hints at a personal stake. If Trump aims to weaken traditional power structures, propping up Bitcoin and the crypto markets could be a tool to decentralize wealth, undermining elite-controlled financial systems.
It’s a theory that aligns his political rhetoric with market movements, and it’s worth watching.
The macroeconomic backdrop supports this bullish crypto case. The M2 money supply—cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money—has surged in recent years, a trend accelerated by central bank stimulus (BitcoinCounterflow, April 14, 2025).
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has correlated with M2 growth, as more money pumped into society flows into assets like BTC. With BTC currently at $110K (May 24, 2025), this relationship holds strong.
More liquidity means more capital chasing Bitcoin, driving its value higher. It’s a natural economic cycle, and the data backs it up—check any M2 vs. BTC chart for the upward trend.
Inflation, whether fueled by war or other factors, further bolsters Bitcoin’s appeal. As prices rise, traditional currencies lose purchasing power, pushing investors toward assets perceived as stores of value.
Bitcoin, with its fixed 21 million coin cap, is increasingly seen as a hedge against inflation (Zerocap, February 21, 2024). War-related oil price hikes (e.g., Strait of Hormuz concerns, Al Jazeera) could stoke inflation, injecting more money into the economy—and into Bitcoin.
This dual effect—inflation as a hedge and a catalyst for market inflows—creates a super bullish environment for crypto. The numbers don’t lie: higher inflation often correlates with BTC rallies.
All these factors point to a robust crypto market. Trump’s potential crypto push, M2 growth, and inflation align to lift Bitcoin and altcoins. Yet, as someone who’s weathered nearly 30 market cycles, I’m cautious.
The current euphoria—everyone’s bullish, and irrelevant companies are jumping on the “Bitcoin Reserve” bandwagon (e.g., adding BTC to balance sheets out of FOMO)—triggers my alarm bells. This is what keeps me up at night.
History shows that when sentiment peaks and hype overtakes fundamentals, corrections follow. Think of the 2017 ICO bubble or the 2021 DeFi mania—over-optimism often precedes a fall.
As a trader, I’ve learned that the market doesn’t care about our convictions. No matter how many lines we draw on charts or how perfect our entry seems, uncertainty reigns.
The war, Trump’s moves, and inflation are pieces of the puzzle, but the unforeseeable black swan could still disrupt everything. This ties back to my recent focus on position management and exits (June 18–23, 2025 posts).
Entries matter less than how we manage positions and exit strategically. Untrading’s ERC-5173 protocol (Jan 14, 2025) offers a tool here—its Future Rewards mechanism lets you profit post-sale, softening the blow if markets turn. It’s a reminder to stay flexible, not married to any narrative.
The crypto market looks bullish, driven by macroeconomic trends and political shifts. Trump’s potential crypto play, M2 growth, and inflation paint a rosy picture—until the crowd gets too loud. As a veteran trader, my advice is clear: enjoy the ride, but keep your eyes open.
The black swan may not be here now, but when everyone’s dancing, it’s time to check the exits. What are your thoughts—bullish or bearish? Share below, and let’s navigate this together.
ReiSoleil, Untrading | Nearly 30 Years in the Markets
On-Chain Media articles are for educational purposes only. We strive to provide accurate and timely information. This information should not be construed as financial advice or an endorsement of any particular cryptocurrency, project, or service. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and unpredictable.Before making any investment decisions, you are strongly encouraged to conduct your own independent research and due diligence
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